Bird forecast for wind farms

What kind of information can the bird forecast provide?

We can make predictions of bird density with a temporal resolution of about 15 minutes for several days into the future. We can forecast the number of birds and their height above ground. Of course, the further the prediction into the future goes, the more uncertain it becomes. Bird flight is very much weather dependent and, therefore, complex to predict.

The video shows the simulation of the spring migration from March 20 to May 17, 2018. An important parameter for the forecast is the physiological condition of the birds. A well-fed flying bird is represented by a red dot. It has lots of energy and can fly up to 640 km. As the bird weakens its dot turns blue, its endurance reaches zero and it has to land.

How should a wind farm owner make use of the forecast?

The idea is to stop the wind turbines while the flock of migratory birds passes and, hence, reduce the collision risk for the birds. For the energy transition in Europe to succeed, there will be most likely more and larger wind farms. It is our responsibility to make sure that the potential impact of the wind farms on migratory birds is as small as possible. With our bird forecast, we are contributing to a successful energy transition.

How do you collect your data for the bird forecast?

We tested our model on nocturnal passerines, which are very small birds that weigh between 10 and 20 grams. These birds are too small to carry trackers. Therefore, we used data from 52 weather radar stations distributed across Europe. Comparing snap shots of bird density derived from the radar with our simulations, we proved that we simulated the 2018 autumn and spring migration seasons accurately.

How important is bird forecasting for Switzerland?

Up to one third of these migratory birds passes through Switzerland. The Jura valleys and Swiss lowlands are the main corridors, as the mountains of the Jura and the Alps form natural obstacles. Installations in the Swiss lowlands will profit most of our forecasting model.

Are biologists interested in your forecasting model?

Very much indeed. We collaborate with the Swiss Ornithological Institute on understanding the decision-making of birds. What are the key factors? How do they decide when and where to fly? We have developed a very powerful forecasting tool by combining ornithologic studies with our simulation framework. Interested parties from industry and politics are welcome to contact us for a more detailed insight into our on-going study.